> COP31 and Climate Law and Governance Day

COP31 and Climate Law and Governance Day

09 Nov 2026

COP31 opens in Antalya, Türkiye today, 9 November, and runs until 20 November. It is an unusual COP even before a single word has been haggled over. Türkiye hosts and holds the Presidency, in the person of its climate minister Murat Kurum. Australia’s Chris Bowen, meanwhile, is “President of Negotiations”, with exclusive authority over the agenda, the draft texts and the appointment of co-facilitators.

That split was the compromise struck at COP30 to end the Türkiye–Australia stand-off over hosting; without it, the conference would have defaulted to Bonn. The Pacific got the Pre-COP, held in Fiji and Tuvalu on 5–8 October. Ten years after the Paris Agreement entered into force, Antalya is billed as a COP of implementation: less about writing new rules, more about whether countries are doing what they said they would.

New to COP? The essentials

What it is? The COP (Conference of the Parties) is the annual meeting of the 198 Parties (197 states plus the EU) to the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. In the same fortnight the same governments also sit as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) and to the Paris Agreement (CMA).
The Paris obligations. Keep warming to 1.5°C (an updated obligation in light of the ICJ’s advisory opinion); each country sets its own targets (its Nationally Determined Contribution, or NDC) and updates them every five years. Every five years there is a collective check-up, the Global Stocktake (which is happening this year).
Who decides. Formal decisions are taken by consensus, so one determined objector can hold things up. The negotiations happen in the UN-run Blue Zone; the public Green Zone hosts side events and exhibitions.
Two tracks. Alongside the negotiations runs the “action agenda”: voluntary pledges and coalitions of governments, cities and businesses. It is not negotiated text, but it is often where the headlines come from.
The cover decision. The headline political text that wraps up a COP. Bowen confirmed at the Pre-COP that there will be one this year, though not “a lengthy political statement”.
Why it matters. To keep 1.5°C in play, global emissions need to fall by about 43% by 2030 against 2019 levels. Current pledges point to warming well above that, closer to 2.8°C on unconditional commitments. The UN has now warned that a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C is inevitable, but that does not mean the target fall away – quite the opposite, the duty to perform the obligation remains and heightens, to reduce the time spent in breach (see, eg §446 of the ICJ Advisory Opinion).

What is on the table

For those who know the drill, Antalya inherits a long list of half-finished business from Dubai (COP28), Baku (COP29) and Belém (COP30).

Track	Where things stand	What to watch in Antalya
Mitigation and NDCs	The new round of NDCs (“NDCs 3.0”) was due in 2025. COP28’s call to triple renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030 still frames ambition.	How the cover decision responds to the NDC synthesis, and to Belém’s voluntary Global Implementation Accelerator and Belém Mission to 1.5.
Finance	The New Collective Quantified Goal, agreed at COP29, is USD 300bn a year by 2035. COP30 recognised the Baku to Belém Roadmap to USD 1.3tn and launched a two-year finance work programme.	Grants versus loans, a wider contributor base, and how flows are tracked. Donor pledges are under scrutiny.
Adaptation	COP30 adopted 59 Belém Adaptation Indicators under the Global Goal on Adaptation, plus a two-year Belém–Addis Vision. It called for tripling adaptation finance by 2035, with no baseline year.	Refining contested indicators, and whether the tripling gets a baseline.
Loss and damage	The Fund is up and running, with the World Bank as interim host.	Replenishment, eligibility, speed of disbursement, and the review of the Santiago Network.
Transparency	First Biennial Transparency Reports were due by the end of 2024.	Expert review capacity and support for developing countries.
Article 6 carbon markets	The Paris crediting mechanism under Article 6.4 is operating, with details outstanding.	Authorisation, share of proceeds for adaptation, and corresponding adjustments to avoid double counting.
Science and the next stocktake	The second Global Stocktake concludes in 2028. Some countries want the next IPCC assessment to land after it.	The UK and others want the IPCC timetable aligned with the stocktake.

The Presidency’s big idea: “35 by 35”

Türkiye wants 35% of the world’s final energy to come from electricity by 2035, up from just over 20% today. COP President Kurum told CarbonBrief the level was set by IEA and IRENA modelling of what keeps 1.5°C within reach, not by politics. The Hormuz crisis has given it extra bite: electrification is pitched as protection against volatile fossil fuel prices, as well as a climate measure.

The EU, UK and Canada have welcomed it, as have the Brazilian (COP30) and Ethiopian (COP32) presidencies. Buildings, transport and industry, around 45% of global emissions, are the priority sectors. The target sits in the voluntary action agenda, not the negotiations. The open question is whether the co-presidency will try to anchor it in the cover decision. E3G has warned that any such text must specify clean electrification, or fossil-fired projects could shelter under the pledge.

Juiciest titbit: the “primary energy fallacy”. Roughly two-thirds of the primary energy in the fossil-fuel-based global system is lost as waste heat before it does anything useful. A forthcoming study led by Oxford’s Jan Rosenow suggests a highly electrified, renewables-based economy could deliver the same useful energy with about half the primary energy. So the transition does not mean replacing fossil fuels joule for joule (as Pilita Clark explains in the FT).

Transitioning away from fossil fuels: the roadmap that wasn’t (quite)

COP28 agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. At Belém, a large coalition of countries pushed for a roadmap to implement that, but it did not make it into the final Mutirão decision. The Brazilian Presidency instead took on the task itself, gathering 267 written contributions (21 from governments) before publishing an international roadmap.

The report’s strengths:

A workable definition of what a “just, orderly and equitable” transition means.
Recognition that countries start from different places, depending on their exposure to fossil fuels and their capacity to move away. The message: start now, from where you are.
A whole-economy view (it is not just about swapping energy kit), with practical examples such as the Santa Marta process.

Commentators have also identified gaps. The report is mostly techno-economic, and its 24 indicators, 82 levers and 243 policies can bury the big issues. It says little on jobs, finance or technology transfer, and nothing on how fast the transition must go. Most notably for lawyers, it is silent on stopping new fossil fuel projects, which goes to the heart of the consenting disputes that have followed Finch. COP31 President of Negotiations Bowen has said he will press petrostates on the issue, so expect it to resurface in Antalya.

The UK in Antalya

The UK arrives in a prominent role, leading the Umbrella Group of non-EU developed countries. It is also sending a heavyweight team: the Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband, and Secretary of State Miatta Fahnbulleh, leading the delegation for the first time. In a pre-COP interview with Carbon Brief, climate minister Katie White set out the UK’s priorities:

Holding up the science, with the IPCC as the basis of discussions.
Electrification, plus methane and forests (including the UK’s investment in the Tropical Forest Forever Facility).
Continued support for the transition away from fossil fuels.

The domestic picture will draw questions. The Climate Change Committee found that around 17% of the cuts needed for the UK’s 2030 NDC (68% below 1990 levels) lack plans. White says the Jackdaw approval is “fully in line” with carbon budgets, and Rosebank awaits a decision. On finance, the UK’s new pledge is £6bn over three years, against £11.6bn over the previous five. The new Chancellor’s budget emphasis on affordability is, in White’s words, a “natural evolution” rather than a retreat.

The UK’s International Leadership – Domestic Roadmap(s) and Pressure

The UK’s International Leadership – Domestic Roadmap(s) and Pressure

On the eve of COP31, the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee (ESNEZ) published a report expressing its concern for the UK’s lack of progress in delivering adaptions to climate change. The committee has set deadlines, against the backdrop of COP31, for a series of establish needed to reclaim the UK’s title as a climate leader on the international stage. ESNEZ recommends that the Government should:

by July 2027, publish a UK national roadmap for a just phase out of fossil fuels,
within six months, publish a single delivery plan for international climate finance,
develop a red-amber-green climate risk assessment system, rating how climate policies across sectors address those risks ,
immediately publish a clear national electrification strategy,
establish a National Framework for Climate Services as an immediate step to improve delivery of domestic adaptation measures and, in this Parliament, provide a plan, measures and legislation to deliver on lagging adaptation performance and emerging priorities (i.e. implement the Climate Change Committee’s call for adaptation delivery plans, backed with the necessary resources to deliver adaptation objectives).

Interestingly, the report suggests that the UK move away from the usual COP consensus approach (which has historically been important for securing the legal framework for climate action). The report concludes that the implementation of climate actions does not require unanimity at the UNFCCC and urges the UK Government to bring a focus on delivery with like-minded countries that cuts across trade, finance and international development.

To read the full report from ESNEZ, follow the link here.

Climate Law and Governance Day 2026

Cornerstone Climate is proud to again be a sponsor of the main legal COP side event: Climate Law and Governance Day (CLG), which this year takes place, on Friday 13 November 2026 at Antalya Bilim University (8:30am–6:30pm local time) and remotely on Zoom: sign up HERE. Cornerstone’s Lois Lane will be speaking on the High Level Closing Plenary IV at 14:45-16:00 London time (GMT).

The theme of CLG Day 2026 is “Ambition to Action: Advancing Climate Justice and Finance”, discussed across plenaries and more than eight specialist panels and workshops. They are grouped under four themes:

Operationalising the Paris Agreement: NDCs 3.0, the Baku to Belém Roadmap, Article 9 finance, loss and damage, and the Global Goal on Adaptation.
Scaling up national ambition through law and governance: local, regional and national carbon budgets, planning rules and multilevel governance.
Advancing climate justice: rights-based approaches, climate litigation, and using advisory opinions from international and regional courts.
Law for decarbonisation through finance, investment and trade: fossil fuel subsidies, climate risk disclosure and greenwashing.

The Day is organised by the Climate Law and Governance Initiative, a partnership of law faculties, institutes and practitioners supported by the Centre for International Sustainable Development Law (McGill and Cambridge). A half-day specialisation course follows on 15 November. Do join us, in Antalya or online.

And Finally

Cornerstone’s Nina Pindham will be attending COP31 in person and is giving a keynote address alongside Dr Patricia Kemri-Mbote, Head of Legal Division, UNEP, titled “From International Obligation to Local Transformation: Implementing Climate Resilient Development in Response to the ICJ Climate Advisory Opinion” on 19 November 2026 hosted by the American Bar Association and organised by Pace Haub School of Law.

Cornerstone Climate’s London-based event to coincide with COP31 is Climate Litigation and Corporate Accountability: An Evening with Lord Justice Dove on 19 November 2026, (6:00pm-8:00pm). The event is fully booked but you can sign up for the waitlist and we’ll notify you if a place becomes available, details can be found here.